I walked down a rainy New York City side street with my friend Oleksii from Ukraine. He was mired in worry about what the Donald Trump’s election would mean for continued assistance to his native country. Pre-occupied about the imposition of any possible Ukraine peace deal.
While we walked, I intently listened to his various worries about weapons platforms, financial aid, and various other means of support that have been given over the last two and a half years. As I pondered his statements; and the more I thought about it, it had dawned on me that he need not be as worried as he appeared about the upcoming election. Donald Trump would not allow himself to fail on a Ukraine peace deal.
Why Trump won’t Bail on Ukraine Peace Deal
The blame for the war in Ukraine largely falls on the not-so-strong shoulders of President Biden. However, if disaster unfolded on Trump’s watch it would not be something he could easily shrug off as Biden’s responsibility. Yes, Biden helped to create this problem; but Trump is campaigning largely on the premise that he and only he can solve the problems that Biden created. Letting Russians overrun large swaths of the country on his watch when they have been relatively contained thus far is a situation he will not allow.
Trump remembers well the disorder and chaos that erupted as the United States pulled out of Afghanistan. This will not allow him to let a similar situation occur in Ukraine. Seeing US vehicles and weapons seized, and bases overrun by Taliban terrorists but this time by Russians is a situation that would doom any legacy Donald Trump hopes to have.
Vladimir Putin is serious when he says it does not matter to him who is the President of the US. However, he claims, if he had to pick he would prefer Biden. This is because as Putin is a (somewhat)master strategist he would rather play against the player whose moves he can predict.
Trump would be a complete wildcard. This is especially true in a term where he has no worries about running again for public office. He can be erratic and flip on a dime. Hillary Clinton was asking us if we can trust this man with the nuclear codes. Who would have envisioned he would be the first president in decades to meet with Kim Jong Un. It is this unpredictability that Putin fears.
A Possible Ukraine Peace Deal?
Yes, a Trump presidency would indeed be likely to push for some Ukraine peace deal to end the violence in Ukraine. He has said this much, though it need not be a bad deal for Ukraine. The war has devolved into a bloody stalemate featuring agonizingly slow Russian gains. A deal would allow Ukraine to get its economy back on track, and its refugees to return. It would also allow it to establish a firmer place in the Western world.
Just as allowing Ukraine’s military to be overrun would be a stain on a Trump presidency, so too would a deal where Ukraine gets completely fleeced on the terms of negotiation. Trump’s persona is based on the “art of the deal.” A deal needs to be one that Zelensky can sell to the Ukrainian people. This package must involve security assurances that will end the current bloodshed. In addition, the Ukrainian people need hope after years of war. This deal must involve funds for the reconstruction of the economy. From the American perspective, Trump must also be able to show the American public that our investment in Ukraine as paid off.
Russia has been barely able to supply lines that are mere miles from its territory. If Russia balks at a Ukraine peace deal or proposes terms so onerous I do not believe Trump would hesitate to up the ante in terms of the use of force. And this is where the wildcard that is Trump comes in. He can just as easily negotiate a deal between Putin and Zelensky as he would to supply Ukraine with even more advanced weaponry. Thus allowing Ukraine to take the limits off of their targeting and strike inside Russia.
We finally made it to Veselka our destination in the East Village. We were ready to enjoy a meal of Varenyky, Bigos and other Ukrainian delights. Bathed in the glow of the diner-like atmosphere I could see his concern ease as all his favorite foods arrived at the table. With that, he finally relented from expressing his concerns to take a bite of his Varenyky as I told him Vse Bude Ukraina-don’t worry everything will be Ukraine.
What are your thoughts? Do you agree that Trump will not sell Ukraine out? Leave your thoughts below and check out our article on Ukraine’s controversial history here
Agree the Republican party will not let Trump make insane moves in Ukraine, such as halt all aid, but I do not believe keeping democracy and freedom alive in Europe is on any of Trump’s radars (unless it involves investigating his political rivals and serving his personal interests). A second term would look much like his first.