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In the weeks since Donald Trump’s comeback to political power, many have been speculating that the end of the Russia-Ukraine war is near. The war is likely to be end with a negotiated ceasefire, as this seems to be the path that Trump has been pushing since the campaign trail.
The Russia-Ukraine war end should benefit global stability and allow the United States to focus on bigger threats from Asia. Even Zelensky has come out this week indicating that Ukraine is willing to forego some territory temporarily in exchange for NATO membership. In terms of the final ceasefire that will be negotiated, many are wondering, whether it will benefit Ukraine, benefit Russia, or impose a neutral armistice on the current lines similar to the Korea situation.
The Russia-Ukraine War End and Why It Will Not Benefit Ukraine
The ship has long sailed for any negotiated compromise ending the Russia-Ukraine war on terms beneficial to Kyiv. The time to negotiate in Ukraine’s favor was in the fall of 2022 when Russia was on the back foot and reeling from defeats on the battlefield and defeats at home. Those who did advocate for ceasefires at this time such as Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger were derided as traitors and Putin apologists.
More took the view of retired US General Ben Hodges who in jubilation exclaimed that Ukrainian forces could be in Crimea by December.
Like a gambler who doesn’t want to get up from the table while they’re ahead or has hit the jackpot, Ukraine (and its backers) felt the Dopamine hit and ruled out any chance of peace talks for a ceasefire at that time.
If there was a time to extract concessions from Moscow this was it, Ukraine had taken back many kilometers of land pushing Russia back to the border in Kharkiv.
Russia was instituting an unpopular conscription that caused millions of military-aged men to flee the country. And Putin’s hold on power looked rather tenuous.
To be fair the United States and the United Kingdom also seemed to have no appetite for negotiation. The issue is not necessarily the decision not to negotiate the war’s end at this point but that any voice even remotely suggesting this was shouted down as a traitor or Russian sycophant. This is a common manifestation of contemporary politics where we attack anyone on the opposing side as evil and dangerous rather than analyzing all opinions and coming to the best possible conclusion.
Flash forward to 2024 and Russia is in a vastly different position. Putin has consolidated his hold on power with the Russian public. The Russian military has found its footing, gaining more land in 2024 than at any other point in the war aside from the opening months. Specifically in October 2024, they gained more land than any other month in the last two years.
The Russian economy has been remarkably resilient and has not been as devastated by the sanctions as many had initially thought. Suffice it to say that Russia will be in no mood to make painful concessions. On top of all that they see President Trump coming in and likely expect a more advantageous ceasefire negotiation under him than they would have received under Biden. Though Biden in the past two years had never even mentioned the idea of pushing a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.
Why A Ceasefire Negotiation May Benefit Russia
This does not mean that Russia holds all of the cards in any end to the Russia-Ukraine war. While Russia’s economy has been resilient it has still been hit hard by the sanctions and ostracized from the international economic community. The Ruble is plunging and Russia has turned its economy into a purely wartime economy.
What was initially conceived to be a quick and painless undertaking has completely transformed Russian society. Regardless of Putin’s ambitions in Ukraine a years-long war is not to his benefit and is a blow to his strong man image every time Ukraine launches drone and missile attacks across the border.
Throughout the war, Vladimir Putin has indicated he is open to negotiations, and as Macron of France pointed out Putin needed to have an off-ramp for de-escalation at some point.
However, Russia in 2024 is changed from the fumbling and bumbling Russia in 2022. In typical Russian fashion, they bungled through the initial invasion seemingly incompetent then found their footing, reorganized, and have been on the attack for the better part of a year. Russia knows if nothing is to change and the war keeps at its current pace they will eventually grind Ukraine down and take the full areas of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.
It is not even only an issue of continued European/American assistance to Ukraine as much as it is a problem of manpower.
What good is giving someone a gun if they have nobody to fire it?
Not only did Ukraine fail to mobilize effectively, but the soldiers they do have are deserting the frontlines in record numbers leaving them vulnerable to collapse as pointed out in this Newsweek article. It is factors like these that at this moment leave Russia in the more desirable position of entering negotiations for a ceasefire.
Many American and other Western leaders repeat the line “We want to leave Ukraine in the best possible position for negotiation.” Well, it is essentially being left in the worst possible position when the best possible position was in the Fall of 2022. We could have had an end to the war much sooner, Ukraine would have been able to negotiate a more favorable position and most importantly thousands of lives could have been saved. This is a position I had been reiterating myself at that time but anyone with these positions was immediately shot down as Putin’s puppet.
All is not lost though as the United States still has considerable leverage to exert and Trump will want to go down in history as not leaving Ukraine completely out to dry.
The Most Likely End to the Russia-Ukraine War
While Russia currently has the upper hand, any ceasefire in Ukraine will likely be based on the status quo once Trump takes office. This means Putin and Russia’s maximum territorial gains will be what they can retake militarily and there will be no transfer of Ukrainian land to Russia in any ceasefire deal.
This is the reason Russia has been pushing so hard these last few months while taking massive casualties. The one wrench in this is the Ukrainian control of some of Kursk. The Ukrainians likely want to use this as a bargaining chip for their land. However, Putin will not be open to this and will either not start ceasefire negotiations until he kicks the Ukrainians out or if he cannot kick them out any compromise will include Ukrainian forces leaving without a transfer of Russian-occupied land back to Ukraine.
The most likely scenario is just a split along the current fighting lines. Ukraine has stated they are open to a split on the current lines if the rest of Ukraine could come under the NATO umbrella. This was not going to happen under President Biden and will certainly not happen under President Trump whose major campaign promise was to not get the US tangled up in foreign wars.
US leverage over Ukraine wouldn’t give Zelensky much choice but to accept a split along the current lines and no NATO guarantee. Continuing the war with minimal or no US support could likely see much of the country eventually overrun.
This is not to say that there would be no guarantees for Ukraine as a plan will be enacted to increase their military production, train and equip their fighters for many years, and provide some assurances of advanced weapons systems that can ward off any future Russian attack.
If NATO membership is a bridge too far possibly a compromise that may be negotiated with Russia is the acceptance of EU membership.
You may be wondering why Russia would negotiate if a continuation of the war would mean they could take over much more of Ukraine.
The problem is this comes with major costs. Hundreds of thousands of Russians continue to die, the continuation of a wartime economy where the sole focus is on military production and international ostracization.
Russia has many incentives to take an off-ramp.
Putin could present a deal to the Russian public showing why the sacrifices of the last two years were worth it. Throughout the war, we kept hearing analysts claiming Putin could end this war any time he wanted if he just packed up and went home but this was never a realistic scenario. It would be political suicide to him to sacrifice thousands of bodies and turn Russia into a pariah nation with nothing to show for it. He was never packing up and heading home and would likely have used nuclear weapons before doing so.
Putin will also not give up an inch of territory that he is already in control of, especially when he knows if he continues the fighting he will likely gain even more. Hashing out a deal that neither Ukraine nor Russia loves but both can live with will take away a major source of global instability.
To surmise, what we are likely to see over the coming months is a Russia-Ukraine split along fighting lines, no NATO membership but possible EU membership for Ukraine, certain types of US/Europe security guarantees, guaranteed funds for the rebuilding of Ukraine’s economy, infrastructure and military and Russia’s gradual acceptance back into the family of nations.
The Russia-Ukraine war end is coming closer do you think Russia is in a better position to leverage negotiations or does Ukraine have the upper hand? If you liked this article check out Trump won’t fail on Ukraine Peace Deal.
