Over 400 days and to the surprise of many Israel and Hamas were finally able to bridge the gaps to allow for the declaration of an announced ceasefire. The Israel Hamas ceasefire leaves many questions unanswered with no guarantee it will survive through the second and third phases. Let alone even the first phase. Israel’s goal for the elimination of Hamas and Hamas’ goal to continue running the Gaza Strip are irreconcilable. After the ceasefire agreement, we saw many hot takes from pundits across the media. Which were rooted in reality? Which was an overreaction? We will explore that all here.
The Israel Hamas Ceasefire will finally bring peace and prosperity to the Gaza Strip.
Overreaction or Reality: Overreaction
Albert Einstein said, “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” That is essentially what this Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal amounts to. Every few years war breaks out, an agreement is negotiated, Hamas and other terrorist organizations rearm and reorganize and war breaks out again. Of course, this latest conflict was on a much greater scale but the concept remains the same.
A common misconception in the West is that Palestinians are held hostage by Hamas and once Hamas is deposed peace and prosperity can reign when “moderates” take control. Westerners cannot fathom that this is a society that values death. A common train of thought among Palestinian mothers is to have as many children as possible so that they can send them to their deaths as martyrs. These mindsets are so foreign to the Western or any civilized world even that we often fail to come up with correct strategies and diplomacy for dealing with this conflict.
At most there may be some semblance of peace for a couple of years until things break open again whether it be with Hamas or some other jihadi group. This is a group of people that were left all the keys to economic prosperity in 2006 when Israel left the Gaza Strip and threw it all away. Is there any reason to think they have learned anything?
President Trump is delusional for advocating for the forced relocation of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip.
Overreaction or Reality: Reality
While I applaud Trump for his out-of-the-box thinking which goes along the lines of what I argued above, that the same old approaches will not work. This is a bridge way too far. Israel will not come out publicly against anything Trump says and in an ideal world, they would love having the United States in control of the Gaza Strip. However, you could see Netanyahu’s shock in the Oval Office when Trump broached this idea.
One reason is that Palestinians have destabilized every country they have ever been guests in and Egypt and Jordan are two reliable partners of Israel and the United States. Jordan especially has a Western-leaning secular pragmatic government that is already barely able to cling to power. Importing thousands to millions of the most radicalized, militant, dangerous Muslims in the world is a recipe for disaster. If you thought Hamas in charge of a small strip of land was bad how about them in charge of a whole country?
In addition, it would poison America’s relations with the Arab world for something Israel does not even want to do to begin with. Forced ethnic cleansing which is what this would amount to is never a good look no matter how dangerous and unsavory a certain population is. I suspect Trump knows this is not a realistic idea but that he wants to force the Arab world to come up with some outside-the-box ideas on their own.
All the hostages will be freed and sent home
Overreaction or Reality: Overreaction
This deal will be torpedoed by Hamas before all the hostages are released. The hostages are Hamas’ one trump card ensuring their survival and relevance. Without hanging onto any hostages they lose any leverage they have now or in the future and are subject to being sidelined and eliminated. When Hamas let hostages free in November of 2023 it wasn’t out of any goodwill but because they had too many hostages. They couldn’t conceal their movements or work as effectively with the burden of hundreds of hostages.
Now that they have been even more decimated since that date they will allow some more to be let go but they will always hang onto a remaining few to ensure that the world and Israel always have to deal with them. Trump has thrown their equation a little bit off the deep end as he is more likely than Biden to allow Israel to return to fighting which could complicate their calculations.
The Israel-Hamas Ceasefire will lead to a Palestinian State and a Saudi-Israel Peace treaty
Overreaction or Reality: Overreaction
The Israeli public, who for decades the majority were in favor of a two-state solution and solving the conflict, has never been in a less forgiving mood. Making any concessions on a Palestinian State anytime soon without significant changes in Palestinian society would be akin to saying Hamas was right and violence works. Pre-October 7th Saudi Arabia would have normalized relations with Israel without an ironclad guarantee of a Palestinian state. However, after the destruction and the deaths in Gaza, they will not be able to sell it to their population.
While the leader of Saudi Arabia MBS might be more concerned about the military technology he can get from the United States with a normalization agreement amongst many other things, his population would be outraged. In this sense, Hamas won, as part of their agenda was derailing any Israel-Saudi Arabia peace treaty. It is not enough at this point to only stop the war. Israel will need to make some concrete concessions towards a Palestinian State to get this treaty.
In the world of diplomacy is there something Israel can do that just on the optics looks like its movement towards a Palestinian State and MBS can sell that to his country as being good enough? Maybe, but that road will likely be long and arduous filled with many pitfalls. Hence we say this is an overreaction.
Is our analysis right on the Israel Hamas Ceasefire or are some of what we claim overreactions actually reality and vice versa? Also, if your interested in the Middle East check out: The Hezbollah Israel War: Frightening Retaliation That Never Came
