Explosions ring out all around.
Rocket attacks are a constant and terrorizing force in the cities.
Fear and chaos envelop the country as incursions from an armed 20,000-strong terrorist force invade the North.
Half of the population is spending their waking hours constantly in bomb shelters.
Except….this never happened.
Hezbollah Israel War
In Israel, life after the start of the Hezbollah Israel war in the North pretty much went on as it had prior. For decades the IDF largely avoided a large-scale confrontation with Hezbollah out of fear of the exact scenarios outlined above. Israel has waged a deadly all-out assault on Hezbollah. In response to this Hezbollah has launched some mostly ineffectual rocket barrages. Certainly, nothing of the scale initially feared.
What can we attribute this to?
Is it the success of the Iron Dome system in intercepting rockets?
Was Hezbollah’s capabilities grossly exaggerated and embellished by Iran and Hezbollah?
Or was the Israeli military’s strategy so well planned and executed that it decimated the largest and best-equipped non-state militia in the world before they could mount any response?
Rocket Defense Systems?
Arrow, David’s Sling, and the famous Iron Dome are all fantastic missile defense systems that do an excellent job shooting down incoming rocket barrages. However, given the number of rockets Hezbollah supposedly had on hand, we have just not seen the volume of barrages coming in that could overwhelm these defense systems.
What could Hezbollah be saving them for? This is the fight. This is the time. War has started, and there is little sense in saving these rockets for a “rainy day.”
No, so there must be something else going on and we can’t just attribute this to the success of these missile defense systems.
Hezbollah’s Capabilities Exaggerated?
Were Hezbollah’s capabilities overstated from the beginning? Terrorist groups and non-state actors tend to exaggerate their abilities that we can be sure of. It was widely believed that Hezbollah had the strength of a medium-sized army and was the most powerful non-state actor in the world with a military budget of $700 million. The recently deceased Hassan Nasrallah claimed to have 100k+ fighters, though even the most conservative estimates put their force at 50k+.
Their rocket capabilities are substantially greater than most countries in the world. It is believed they possessed 40k to 150k rockets with varying tonnage and range. The CIA claims the figure to be around the 150k range, so it may be safe to assume the higher end.
The skill of its fighters has also been widely praised, with Jane’s declaring Hezbollah fighters “to be amongst the most dedicated, motivated, and highly trained in the world.” It was expected in any future war that Hezbollah would make great effort and possibly be able to capture Israeli territory. While some numbers may have been exaggerated as usual, it seems that the leading authorities in the world generally agree with the number of rockets, soldiers, and skill of Hezbollah fighters. While there has been far from no resistance, the lack of what Israel was expected to face does not seem to come from exaggerated statistics.
Israel’s Well Planned Military Strategy
This leaves one possibility, that Israel’s response was so well planned and executed that Hezbollah was reduced to a shell of itself before it could effectively mount any notable response. American intelligence officials have assessed that the Israeli operations against Hezbollah were far more effective than anyone in Washington initially anticipated. How did Israel manage to take out the world’s best-equipped and most feared non-state actor?
Pager Attacks on Hezbollah
It started with a James Bondesque pager attack that maimed and wounded over 3,000 terror operatives, sowing fear and panic amongst its mid-level commanders. This was followed up the next day with a walkie-talkie attack, further injuring another 750 members.
While some on the American left, AOC, decried this arbitrary and capricious attack. In reality, it was one of the most targeted pinpointed attacks in history, as the pagers specifically belonged to members of Hezbollah and the explosions were small enough to limit collateral damage to civilians around them. This is why there was such a small death toll from this incident but a high injury toll. Of course, AOC will never waste a moment to shed tears for terrorists.
Regardless, you can understand the panic that set in among Hezbollah leadership as thousands had their hands and private parts maimed with no idea what other devices may be bugged or not. Even Nasrallah declared that the pager attack was a “major blow” to his organization.
Airstrikes on Hezbollah and Lebanon
These attacks set the stage for the next phase of the Hezbollah Israel war, or as they say in the military “battlespace shaping.” Before Hezbollah could mount a response, the next day after the walkie-talkie attack, September 19th, Israel launched air attacks on Southern Lebanon and Beirut. One of the major goals of these strikes was to destroy Hezbollah’s rocket capability. Their rocket capability would be the maximum way for them to inflict terror on the Israeli population. Hundreds of rocket launchers were destroyed within 24 hours and thousands within the first few days of bombardment.
Long- and medium-range rocket launchers are substantially bigger than short-range launchers, thus making them exceptional targets that can be taken out quickly and efficiently. This is why Hezbollah is still able to shoot short-range rockets across the border, and it is likely impossible to put a stop to that without a ceasefire. However, the large-scale long-range rocket attacks that many feared have been largely absent. We can attribute this to precise intelligence collection and targeting among the IDF. They knew where the launchers were and took them out early in the conflict.
Some estimate that nearly all of Hezbollah’s long-range and precision-guided rockets have been taken out. While this may not be true, the estimates before the war were that Hezbollah could shoot between 2,000 and 3,000 rockets per day at Israel. Now we see that even on their best day, they can only shoot between 200-300 rockets maximum.
A retired Lebanese general Khalil El Helous said to Bloomberg, “Hezbollah can’t fire more than 100 rockets a day because of Israel’s sustained targeting of its storage facilities and interruption of transport routes from the Bekaa Valley though they can still hurt Israel with short-range rockets and drones.”
Elimination of Hezbollah Leadership
In conjunction with taking out rocket launchers and weapons depots, the IDF went after Hezbollah leadership. The pager attacks put Hezbollah operatives in the dark, leaving them unable to communicate. This led to increased use of in-person meetings setting the stage for their ultimate fates. Nearly all of the Hezbollah leadership has been eliminated with so many being killed that it is impossible to discuss in full detail in just one article.
One of the more notable names and the first major figure eliminated was Fuad Shukr who was Hezbollah’s top military commander and had a $5 million US bounty on his head for his involvement in the deaths of 241 US marines. Ibrahim Aqil, the head of Hezbollah’s Radwan forces which is their equivalent of special forces was killed on September 20, 2024, towards the start of this recent escalation. Ali Karaki, the head of the Southern Front which is where Israeli ground troops would end up fighting was eliminated on September 27, 2024.
The one thought to be untouchable Hassan Nasrallah was eliminated on that same date. His presumed to be successor Hashem Safieddine was taken out before they could even appoint him as the successor. This is only a small drop of some of the most notable names killed in this Hezbollah Israel war.
Picture yourself as a lowly Hezbollah operative. Your local commanders have had their hands and private parts blown off, your senior commanders are all dead and you can barely launch a rocket without getting blown apart yourself.
Where do you get your will to fight from?
The elimination of Hezbollah leadership has demoralized the rank-and-file soldiers and this set the stage for an Israeli ground operation. This limited ground operation is the final piece of the puzzle to take out the sites that could not be hit with air strikes alone. While limited it was shaped by all of the events that preceded it to give Israeli soldiers on the ground the best possible odds of success. What was once thought to be an insurmountable foe was taken apart piece by piece.
This is not to say that there have been no Israeli casualties or that it has been easy as even a weak Hezbollah is a fearsome force but the strategic planning surrounding this operation has allowed it to operate at maximum efficiency. Hezbollah on its back foot is now begging for a ceasefire so that it can preserve what they have left of its capabilities with its political arm seemingly open to most of the Israeli demands.
Israel’s strategic planning and intelligence capabilities allowed it to deliver a decisive blow against Hezbollah without retaliation that leading experts around the world envisioned. With a looming ceasefire that hopes to leave Hezbollah as a shell of its former self attention will turn to Iran as the final piece of the puzzle.
Two of Iran’s major proxies have essentially been destroyed and this could cause a desperate Iranian leadership to escalate. Whether this is in the form of increased rocket attacks from Iran proper or an acceleration toward a nuclear bomb remains to be seen. However, as shown by Israel’s targeting of Hamas leadership in the middle of Tehran it appears Israeli intelligence has compromised the Iranian regime. Iran must tread carefully lest they suffer the same fate as their once strong proxies.
Do you agree that superb Israeli strategy the primary reason for Hezbollah’s weakness in this current round of fighting? Was there other reasons? Let us know below. Also, if you like articles on the Hezbollah Israel war check out Who Writes This S*!&–“Netanyahu’s lethal bombs will turn Lebanon into another Gaza. He must be brought down now” Simon Tisdall
