In barely a week since Syrian rebels restarted their offensive against the regime of Bashar al-Assad, there is a new Syrian flag flying above Damascus. In a lightning offensive involving a mishmash of different factions led by Hayat al-Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its leader, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, they retook the country in a week.
Statues of Bashar and his father Hafez al-Assad are crumbling down, and the iconic Syrian flag with its red, white, and black strips with two black stars has been replaced with a green, white, and black Syrian rebel flag with three red stars.
What do the differences in the Syrian flags represent, and more importantly, what are some takeaways for Syria and the region resulting from this shock offensive?
A New Syrian Flag
The current Syrian flag flying since 1980 is a nod to Arab unity. The red represents the blood shed in the revolution for the “freedom” of Syrians, the White denotes a peaceful future, and the black is for the alleged oppression suffered by Arabs. The green stars in the middle represent Syria and Egypt, the two founding states of the Arab Republic.
This flag represents Syria’s ties to the pan-Arab movement that was big in the 1950s and 60s. This pan-Arab movement has largely evaporated in the Middle East in the current day.
In contrast, the rebel Syrian flag is the flag that flew in the 1930s when Syria had been granted independence from France and has a green stripe at the top. The green stripe represents hope, freedom, and aspirations for a better future. The red stars on the rebel Syrian flag represent the three main cities, Damascus, Aleppo, and Homs, which were key to the country’s revolution and opposition to Assad.
All of this sounds good and hopeful, but who are these rebels, and what is their end goal aside from the toppling of the Assad dynasty?
Who is Abu Mohammed al-Julani and HTS
The group spearheading this recent blitzkrieg against the Syrian army is Hayat al-Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Abu Mohammed al-Julani. Al-Julani is believed to have joined Al-Qaeda during the early 2000s and fought against US forces in Iraq.
When the Syrian civil war broke out in 2011, he came back to Syria and joined the Nusra Front, a group that pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda. Quickly, al-Julani emerged as the leader of the Nusra Front. During this time, he gained notoriety for his cruelty and desire to implement strict Sharia law in Syria.
In 2016, he broke from al-Qaeda and established HTS to be more Syria-focused and offer a break from the more extreme jihadi ideology at large. During this time, HTS and al-Julani governed Idlib province, the remaining rebel stronghold in Syria.
In 2020, the United States put a 10 million dollar bounty on his head for his capture after branding him a global terrorist in 2013.
What Clues Can we Use to See How HTS will Govern
The first takeaway from the recent events in Syria is that al-Julani has seemed to moderate his views in the last six years, but does a leopard change its spots? I mean this is a man who was “appreciative” of the 9/11 attacks so keep this in mind as none of these people are particularly “good guys”.
He has been saying most of the right things over the past two weeks, as he knows that to retain his hold on power he must respect the United States and Israel, the two dominant military players in the region. He has indicated he wants cordial relations with all of Syria’s neighbors, including Israel, and is demanding that his fighters respect minority rights in the areas they conquer.
Joe Biden said when recently asked about al-Julani
“We will remain vigilant, make no mistake, some of the rebel groups that took down Assad have their own grim record of terrorism and human rights abuses.” He added that the groups are “saying the right things now but as they take on greater responsibility, we will assess not just their words, but their actions.”
This is probably the correct attitude to have at this moment being that so much is unknown. Nobody is sparing any tears for Assad, but it is imperative to wait and see how HTS seeks to govern.
We can gather some clues from their governance of Idlib over the past few years, which was relatively well governed with access to public services and maintained stability even when compared to areas of Syria under Assad’s control.
On the flip side, as time went on HTS and al-Julani’s oppression and control became greater and greater as is often the case with unelected rulters. Initially presenting himself as a populist freeing people from Assad as time went on al-Julani’s rule in Idlib became increasingly authoritarian by cracking down on any opposition groups.
However, it is much different governing a breakaway province surrounded by opposition forces wanting to kill you than it will be now that he has control of the whole country and some of that threat should be removed. The former requires a much tighter grip on power. We will have to wait and see if his lip service to freedom and human rights will be present now that they have control of the full country.
One bright aspect in this regard is the relative humaneness of their treatment of government soldiers during this swift conquest. HTS fighters were instructed to treat captured government soldiers humanely and to respect the civilian populations in areas captured. The fight was largely devoid of any of the vile images we saw with ISIS’s move through Syria and Iraq. The rhetoric of a revolutionary and the realistic day-to-day governing of a country are two different operations and al-Julani may be bright enough to realize if he wants to govern successfully he must keep Syria from turning into a pariah state.
While there’s no doubt HTS may believe in some of the more radical jihadist ideologies, they, and al-Julani in particular, may be smart enough to realize that to govern a disparate population of many differing groups, ties it requires a more pragmatist approach. The worst situation would be if Syria turns into the next Libya and essentially becomes a patchwork nation of differing groups constantly fighting.
Global Relations: How the Russa-Ukraine War and October 7th Led to Assad’s Downfall
Assad’s overthrow and Hayat al-Tahrir al-Sham’s advance demonstrate the true interconnectedness of events in the region and even events far away from the region. Bashar al-Assad’s regime would have been overthrown years ago if it were not for Russia coming to his aid. Rebels led by Nusra Front came close to overthrowing Assad in 2013 if it weren’t for Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah coming in to help stabilize his situation.
This time Russia was bogged down in a war in Ukraine and did not have the time nor resources to devote to propping up his regime. Also, the swiftness of HTS’s march to Damascus did not give Russia much time to organize a game plan other than a few perfunctory air strikes.
Just as important, if not more important, was the decimation of Hezbollah in allowing HTS to gain power. It is no surprise that Syrian rebels were cheering wildly in the streets at the news of Hassan Nasrallah’s death and with the exploding pager attacks throughout Lebanon.
It is also far from coincidental that Syrian rebels launched their offensive against Assad on the same day Israel and Hezbollah announced a ceasefire.
With Hezbollah halfway to annihilation, the rebels had a premier opportunity to launch an attack where no reinforcements would come rushing in to save the day. A fully functional Hezbollah would easily overpower the HTS fighters, but the Hezbollah on November 27th was a far cry from what it once was.
In addition, Iran has seen its proxy group Hamas nearly destroyed, its proxy Hezbollah nearly destroyed, and its air defenses destroyed and were in no situation to rush in to save the day for Assad either. Over one year later, it has now become apparent that Iran has become a major loser from the attacks on October 7th. With the current events they have now just lost one of their last friendly regimes in the region and have no overland route to re-supply Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The events in the Russia-Ukraine war as well as the events after October 7th reshaped the Middle East to leave Assad and all of his backers in a very precarious position. While the swiftness of this operation caught everyone by surprise when we look at the events that took place over the last year the writing was on the wall long before.
And so a new Syrian flag flies above Damascus. We traded one murderous dictator for a radical jihadist with past links to al-Qaeda.
Considering that Bashar al-Assad had used chemical weapons on his people and killed between 500,000-600,000 of them I think the world is cautiously optimistic for a brighter future in Syria.
Only time will tell if this is the case, while Assad was a very bad guy he was a known quantity whose moves were predictable.
For now, the mood in Syria is one of excitement. If HTS and its leadership focus on fixing the internal issues and less on the issues of the outside world and global jihad they may end up surprisingly contributing to a more stable Middle East.
Their actions in the last few years and their split from al-Qaeda seem to indicate they are more concerned about the inner workings of Syria than waging any global war but we have heard these things before. When the Taliban retook Afghanistan a few years ago we were told they were the nicer, kinder, gentler Taliban. That myth fell apart fast.
The West can be cautiously optimistic but must prepare for worst-case scenarios as Syria cannot be used to turn into another terrorist breeding ground like Afghanistan was. With the United States already posturing that it intends to keep bases in the country and launching 75 airstrikes after the rebels took over on ISIS facilities we can be sure they are watching the situation closely. A new Syrian flag may fly but hopefully, it will not turn into the same old story.
Will Syria become a more functional country now or will it fall back into a civil war among its varying ethnicities? If you liked this article check out The Hezbollah Israel War: Frightening Retaliation That Never Came
